Summary:

Powerful winter storm could severely impact Thanksgiving travel in the Tri-State area.
Possible accumulating snow, freezing temperatures, strong winds, and rain.
Uncertainty remains about snow totals due to variable cold air.
NYC expects heavy rain, but flash flooding is unlikely due to recent drought conditions.
NYC's winter snow prediction: around 20 inches, below the average of 28 inches.

NYC Winter Storm Could Wreck Thanksgiving Travel

A powerful winter storm is threatening to disrupt Thanksgiving travel plans in the Tri-State area. The storm could bring accumulating snow, freezing temperatures, strong winds, and rain, starting late this week and into the weekend.

Snowfall Forecast

The FOX Forecast Center predicts snowfall is possible across parts of the northern mid-Atlantic and interior Northeast, but there's uncertainty about the amount of snow due to the varying cold air.

Lake-effect snow is also a possibility, but depends on the storm's track and air temperature. The NOAA NWS Climate Prediction Center agrees, stating uncertainty about the cold air's magnitude will affect precipitation type and totals. A Facebook post from the agency confirms this uncertainty.

NYC Rain

Meanwhile, NYC is expecting some much-needed rain. The precipitation might be heavy at times, but due to recent record-dry conditions, flash flooding is unlikely, according to the FOX Forecast Center.

The National Weather Service forecasts a 90% chance of rain Wednesday night, dropping to 60% on Thursday. NYC hasn't seen a quarter-inch of rain in a single day since September 29th.

NYC Winter Snow Predictions

While this week's forecast is rain, FOX 5 NY's Nick Gregory predicts approximately 20 inches of snow for NYC this winter (below the average of 28 inches). He suggests above-average temperatures and more snow than last year, with totals between 18-23 inches.

The lower Hudson Valley may see slightly more snow (20-25 inches), with more snowfall further north. Coastal areas may experience a mix of rain and snow, while heavier snow is anticipated further inland.

Historically, the first measurable snow (one inch or more) in NYC falls around December 13th. The earliest was October 29th, 2011 (2.9 inches).

Source: FOX 5 New York